Research

When Nonbanks Dampen and When They Amplify: A Yield-Curve View of the Nonbank Lending Channel

with Peter Bednarek, Steven Ongena, and Natalja von Westernhagen

Working paper

Abstract

We show that the nonbank lending channel is yield-curve dependent. Using German credit register data and within-firm identification, we find that nonbanks dampen monetary tightening after short-end surprises but amplify it after medium- and long-end surprises. Financial service institutions drive this sign reversal: they expand through a bank capital reallocation channel at the short end but contract at longer segments. Insurers partly offset this pattern, expanding after medium- and long-end surprises as duration-driven solvency gains support their lending capacity. The aggregate nonbank response therefore depends both on the yield-curve segment affected and on the composition of the nonbank sector.

Presentations

Deutsche Bundesbank Research Seminar Series (Online) · ChaMP Special Workstream 1 NBFI Workshop (Frankfurt) · 19th RGS Doctoral Conference (Bochum) · 2026 CEBRA Annual Meeting (Copenhagen) · 15th MoFiR Workshop on Banking (Varese) · IFABS 2026 (London)

Coverage

Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, April 2026.

Banks, Nonbanks, and Geopolitical Shocks: Evidence from the Russia–Ukraine War

with Daniel te Kaat, Michaela Kesina, and Natalja von Westernhagen

In progress

Abstract

Using the Russia–Ukraine war as a natural experiment, this project examines how geopolitical stress travels through bank-NBFI networks and quantifies the role that nonbanks play in stabilizing or destabilizing credit supply to firms.

Grant

Supported by a research grant from the Frankfurt Institute for Risk Management and Regulation (FIRM).